Fixed Stake (Target Profit)
Overview
Stake whatever amount is needed to achieve a fixed profit target, given the odds. Unlike level stakes (fixed outlay), this adjusts the stake based on odds so that every winning bet returns the same profit.
How It Works
\[Stake = \frac{Target\ Profit}{Odds - 1}\]Example: Target profit = £10. At odds of 2.0, stake = £10 / 1 = £10. At odds of 5.0, stake = £10 / 4 = £2.50. Both winning bets return £10 profit.
Formula
\[S = \frac{T}{o - 1}\]Where:
- $S$ = stake
- $T$ = target profit
- $o$ = decimal odds
Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
target_profit |
number | 10 | Desired profit per winning bet |
Risk Assessment
- Risk Level: Low (profit-side), Variable (stake-side)
- Max Drawdown: Stake × losing streak length — higher at short odds
- Recommended Bankroll: 50× target profit (covers high-stake short-odds bets)
- Ruin Risk: Low with sensible targets
When to Use
- You want consistent profit per winner regardless of odds
- Your selections vary widely in odds but have similar confidence
- Simpler than Kelly for odds-based stake adjustment
When to Avoid
- Very short odds (near 1.01) — stake becomes extreme
- Very long odds — stake becomes tiny, almost pointless
- You don’t care about consistent profit amounts
Betfair Exchange Notes
- Adjust target profit downward by commission rate: effective target = target × (1 − commission)
- For lay betting, the equivalent is Fixed Liability (risk the same liability regardless of odds) — see Lay Liability
Related Plans
- Level Stakes — Fixed outlay, variable profit
- Lay Liability — Lay equivalent (fixed risk per bet)
Sources
- Plan catalog reference: The Staking Machine — staking plan software with 50+ plans
- Plan mechanics: Mathematical formulas and plan concepts are in the public domain