i-TSM Staking Plan
Overview
An intelligent, adaptive staking plan that adjusts stakes based on recent performance metrics. The “i” stands for intelligent — it dynamically modifies stake sizing based on strike rate, ROI, and other performance indicators.
How It Works
- Monitor recent betting performance (last N bets)
- Calculate performance metrics (strike rate, ROI, profit/loss)
- Adjust stake size based on metrics:
- Good performance: Gradually increase stakes
- Poor performance: Gradually decrease stakes
- The adjustment is continuous and data-driven
Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
base_stake |
number | 10 | Starting/reference stake |
lookback |
number | 20 | Number of recent bets to analyze |
sensitivity |
number | 0.5 | How aggressively to adjust stakes |
Risk Assessment
- Risk Level: Variable (depends on sensitivity and lookback)
- Max Drawdown: Self-correcting — reduces stakes during poor runs
- Recommended Bankroll: 50× base stake
- Ruin Risk: Low-medium — adaptive reduction provides protection
When to Use
- You believe recent performance predicts near-future performance
- You want a plan that “learns” from results
- You’re comfortable with data-driven approaches
When to Avoid
- Your edge is consistent regardless of recent results (use fixed staking)
- You want simple, predictable stake sizes
- Short-term variance misleads the adaptive mechanism
Betfair Exchange Notes
- The adaptive nature works well on exchange where you can adjust stakes fluidly
- Ensure lookback period is long enough to distinguish signal from noise
Related Plans
- Percentage Staking — Responds to bankroll, not performance
- Kelly Criterion — Responds to edge, not recent results
Sources
- Plan catalog reference: The Staking Machine — staking plan software with 50+ plans
- Plan mechanics: Mathematical formulas and plan concepts are in the public domain