Lay Percentage Liability
Overview
Stake such that your liability (not your stake) equals a fixed percentage of your bankroll. This is the safer proportional approach for lay betting — your risk scales predictably regardless of odds.
How It Works
\[Stake = \frac{Bankroll \times (percentage / 100)}{Odds - 1}\]Example: £1,000 bankroll at 2% liability. At odds of 3.0: stake = £20/2 = £10, liability = £20. At odds of 10.0: stake = £20/9 = £2.22, liability = £20. In both cases, risk = 2% of bankroll.
Formula
\[S = \frac{B \times p}{o - 1}\]Where:
- $S$ = lay stake
- $B$ = current bankroll
- $p$ = liability percentage (as decimal, e.g., 0.02)
- $o$ = decimal lay odds
Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
percentage |
number | 2 | Percentage of bankroll to risk as liability |
Risk Assessment
- Risk Level: Medium (consistent % risk per bet)
- Max Drawdown: Similar to back % staking — controlled by the percentage
- Recommended Bankroll: 50× liability (50× 2% = 100% of bankroll, i.e., any bankroll works)
- Ruin Risk: Low — risk is always a fixed fraction
When to Use
- Recommended for most lay bettors using proportional staking
- Your lay selections have widely varying odds
- You want bankroll protection with compounding growth
When to Avoid
- Very short lay odds (near 1.01) — stake becomes very large for a tiny win
- You want consistent winnings rather than consistent risk
Betfair Exchange Notes
- This is the lay equivalent of back percentage staking and is the most sensible default for proportional lay betting
- Winnings vary: lower odds = larger stake = larger win; higher odds = smaller stake = smaller win
Related Plans
- Lay Liability — Fixed liability (non-compounding)
- Lay Percentage — % of stake, not liability (riskier)
- Percentage Staking — Back betting equivalent
Sources
- Plan catalog reference: The Staking Machine — staking plan software with 50+ plans
- Plan mechanics: Mathematical formulas and plan concepts are in the public domain