Stepped Time-Based Staking
Overview
A unique staking plan where escalation is based on time/number of bets rather than wins or losses. Bet a fixed amount for N races, then increase to the next level for the next N races — always resetting to the base level on any win. Combines flat staking’s safety with a gentle incentive to eventually find a winner.
How It Works
- Start at Level 1: bet 1 unit for up to N races
- Win at any point: Reset to Level 1 (1 unit)
- N consecutive losses at Level 1: Move to Level 2 (2 units) for the next N races
- N consecutive losses at Level 2: Move to Level 3 (3 units)
- Continue escalating by 1 unit every N losses
- Any win at any level: Immediately reset to Level 1
Example (N=5): £1 × 5 races (all lose) → £2 × 5 races (all lose) → £3 × 5 races (win on 3rd) → Reset to £1
Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
base_unit |
number | 1 | Starting stake per bet |
bets_per_level |
number | 5 | Number of bets at each level before escalating |
increment |
number | 1 | Units to add per level |
max_level |
number | — | Optional maximum level cap |
Risk Assessment
- Risk Level: Medium
- Max Drawdown: Predictable — each level lasts exactly N bets at a known stake
- Recommended Bankroll: (bets_per_level × max_level × (max_level+1) / 2) units
- Ruin Risk: Low-medium — escalation is slow and capped if max_level is set
When to Use
- You want a gradual, predictable escalation pace
- Your strike rate is low but consistent (you WILL hit winners, just not frequently)
- You prefer the psychological comfort of “I have 5 chances at this level”
When to Avoid
- Very high strike rates (you’ll rarely leave Level 1 — might as well use flat staking)
- You want aggressive recovery (this is deliberately slow)
Comparison: Stepped vs Martingale
| Stepped Time-Based | Martingale | |
|---|---|---|
| After N losses | Stake = N+1 | Stake = 2^N |
| 10 losses in | Stake = 3 (if N=5) | Stake = 1,024 |
| Reset trigger | Any win | Any win |
| Philosophy | Patience | Aggression |
Betfair Exchange Notes
- Works identically for back and lay
- For lay betting, apply the level to liability rather than stake
Related Plans
- Level Stakes — Flat staking (no escalation)
- Martingale — Aggressive doubling (opposite philosophy)
- Whitaker — Small increments after wins (different direction)
Sources
- Plan source: WellDone Community Forum — “Back recovery strategy” — user-contributed concept by Gordon
- Plan mechanics: Mathematical formulas and plan concepts are in the public domain