Up X Down Y Staking Plan
Overview
An asymmetric progression plan where stakes increase by X units after a loss but decrease by Y units after a win — with X and Y independently configurable. Typically X > Y, making the plan a mild negative progression (faster up, slower down).
How It Works
- After a loss: Increase stake by X units
- After a win: Decrease stake by Y units (never below base)
- Choose X and Y to control recovery speed vs risk
Example (X=2, Y=1): Start at 10. Lose → 12. Lose → 14. Win → 13. Win → 12. Lose → 14…
Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
base_stake |
number | 10 | Starting and minimum stake |
X |
number | 2 | Units to increase after a loss |
Y |
number | 1 | Units to decrease after a win |
Risk Assessment
- Risk Level: Medium (X > Y), Low (X = Y), Low (Y > X — positive progression)
- Max Drawdown: Linear growth at rate X per loss
- Recommended Bankroll: 100+ units
- Ruin Risk: Medium if X > Y
When to Use
- You want fine-grained control over progression speed
- You prefer moderate negative progression (X slightly larger than Y)
- Or you want positive progression (Y > X)
When to Avoid
- Large X values — linear growth becomes aggressive over many losses
- You want simple, fixed rules
Betfair Exchange Notes
- For lay betting, apply X and Y to liability, not stake (safer)
- See Lay % Up Down for the lay variant
Related Plans
- D’Alembert — Special case where X = Y = 1
- Lay % Up Down — Lay variant
Sources
- Plan catalog reference: The Staking Machine — staking plan software with 50+ plans
- Plan mechanics: Mathematical formulas and plan concepts are in the public domain