Back Accumulator Staking Plan
Overview
A positive progression plan for back betting: after each win, accumulate the stake by adding the base stake plus a percentage of the profit. Reset to base after a loss or after completing the cycle. The opposite of recovery staking — it compounds winnings, not losses.
How It Works
- Start with a base stake (e.g., £5)
- Win: Next stake = base stake × step number + % of previous profit
- Loss: Reset to base stake
- After N steps (e.g., 5), reset to base stake regardless
Example (5-step cycle, £5 base, 50% profit accumulation):
- Step 1: £5 (Win) → Step 2: £10 + 50% of £5 profit = £12.50
- Step 2: £12.50 (Win) → Step 3: £15 + 50% of £12.50 profit = £21.25
- Step 3: £21.25 (Loss) → Reset to £5
Formula
\[S_n = B \times n + p \times P_{n-1}\]Where:
- $S_n$ = stake at step $n$
- $B$ = base stake
- $n$ = step number in cycle (1, 2, 3…)
- $p$ = profit accumulation percentage (e.g., 0.50)
- $P_{n-1}$ = profit from the previous winning bet
Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
base_stake |
number | 5 | Starting stake |
cycle_length |
number | 5 | Number of steps before forced reset |
profit_pct |
number | 50 | % of profit to accumulate into next stake |
Risk Assessment
- Risk Level: Medium
- Max Drawdown: Base stake per losing bet (never chases losses)
- Recommended Bankroll: 30× maximum cycle stake
- Ruin Risk: Low — you only risk accumulated profits, never increase after losses
When to Use
- Your selections cluster in winning streaks
- You want to compound during hot runs
- Risk-averse approach to progression (never chase losses)
When to Avoid
- Isolated winners (rarely get to step 3+)
- Low strike rates (mostly resetting to base)
- You prefer flat staking for consistency
Betfair Exchange Notes
- Commission reduces the effective profit for accumulation — use post-commission profit in the formula
- Works well on exchange where you can adjust stakes fluidly
Related Plans
- Lay Accumulator — Lay equivalent (liability-based)
- Parlay — Simpler “let it ride” approach
- 1-3-2-6 — Fixed-sequence positive progression
Sources
- Plan source: MarketFeeder — Back Accumulator Staking
- Plan mechanics: Mathematical formulas and plan concepts are in the public domain