Fibonacci Staking Plan
Overview
A negative progression system using the Fibonacci sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21…). After a loss, move one step forward in the sequence. After a win, move two steps back. The goal is to recover losses through progressively larger stakes.
How It Works
- Start at the first number in the sequence (1 unit)
- After a loss: Move forward one step in the sequence
- After a win: Move back two steps
- When you return to the start (or before), any winning sequence should produce a net profit
Formula
The Fibonacci sequence:
\[F_0 = 1, \quad F_1 = 1, \quad F_n = F_{n-1} + F_{n-2}\]Sequence: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144…
Stake: $S = F_n \times \text{unit}$, where $n$ is your current position in the sequence.
Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
unit |
number | 1 | Base unit size for the sequence |
Risk Assessment
- Risk Level: High
- Max Drawdown: Potentially very large — 10 consecutive losses requires 89 units (sum of stakes = 231 units lost)
- Recommended Bankroll: 500+ units
- Ruin Risk: High — long losing streaks cause exponential stake growth (though slower than Martingale)
When to Use
- You accept the risk of progressive staking
- You have a very large bankroll relative to unit size
- Your selections have a reasonable strike rate (avoid with very low win rates)
When to Avoid
- Limited bankroll — long losing streaks will exhaust it
- Low strike-rate systems — losses compound dangerously
- You’re uncomfortable with escalating stakes after losses
- Exchange betting with high-odds selections (lay liability can become extreme)
Betfair Exchange Notes
- For lay betting with Fibonacci, consider liability rather than stake — escalating lay stakes at high odds means exponentially growing liability
- Commission on wins slightly reduces the recovery effect (you need slightly more than 2 steps back)
Comparison with Martingale
| Fibonacci | Martingale | |
|---|---|---|
| Growth rate | Moderate | Exponential |
| Recovery steps | 2 steps back per win | Reset to start per win |
| 10-loss sequence stake | 89 units | 1,024 units |
| Risk | High | Very High |
Related Plans
- D’Alembert — Slower negative progression
- Labouchere — Sequence-based but user-defined
- Recovery — More aggressive recovery approach
Sources
- Plan catalog reference: The Staking Machine — staking plan software with 50+ plans
- Plan mechanics: Mathematical formulas and plan concepts are in the public domain