Recovery Staking Plan
Overview
A straightforward recovery plan: after any loss, increase the next stake to recover the lost amount. The goal is to return to the starting position after every loss, plus earn a small target profit.
How It Works
- Start with a base stake
- Win: Reset to base stake (cycle complete)
- Loss: Next stake = (previous stake + loss amount) / (odds − 1), aiming to recover everything in one bet
Example: £10 base at 2.0 odds. Lose £10. Next stake = £10 (to win £10 back). Lose again (£20 total loss). Next stake = £20. Win → recover all £30 lost + base profit.
Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
base_stake |
number | 10 | Starting stake |
target_profit |
number | 0 | Additional profit per cycle (optional) |
Risk Assessment
- Risk Level: High
- Max Drawdown: Exponential growth during losing streaks
- Recommended Bankroll: 500+ units
- Ruin Risk: High — pure loss-chasing without caps
When to Use
- Very high strike rate (>60%)
- Large bankroll
- Short-term use with strict stop-loss
⚠️ Critical Warning
Unchecked recovery staking is one of the most dangerous approaches. Without a stop-loss or maximum stake cap, a long losing streak will deplete any bankroll. Always set a maximum number of recovery steps.
Betfair Exchange Notes
- For lay betting, recovery staking is extremely dangerous — liability grows with both the recovery amount and the odds
- See Lay % Recovery for a slightly safer lay variant
Related Plans
- Pro — Similar recovery with fixed target profit
- Stop at a Winner — Recovery that stops after any winner
- Recovery Type 2 — Variant
- Recovery Type 3 — Variant
Sources
- Plan catalog reference: The Staking Machine — staking plan software with 50+ plans
- Plan mechanics: Mathematical formulas and plan concepts are in the public domain