Incremental Loss Recovery Plan
Overview
A milder alternative to Martingale-style recovery. After a loss, add the starting bet amount (not the full loss) to the next bet. After a win, reduce the bet by a percentage of the starting amount. Escalation is linear and controlled, not exponential.
How It Works
- Start with a fixed percentage of bank (unit size)
- After a loss: Next bet = previous bet + unit size
- After a win: Next bet = previous bet − (unit size × reduction %), but never below unit size
Example (unit = £10, reduction = 30%):
- £10 (Win) → £10
- £10 (Loss) → £20
- £20 (Win) → £14 (−30% of £10 = −£3 → wait, that’s not right)
Actually: reduction is 30% of the starting bet (£10), not the current bet. So £20 (Win) → £20 − £3 = £17 (but the description says £14… Let me re-read)
The page says: “After each win, you decrease the next bet by a percentage of the starting bet, unless the bet is already equal to its initial size.”
Example: 10 (Win), 10 (Loss), 20 (Win), 14 (Win), 9.8 (Win)…
So the reduction is from the current bet, not the starting bet. 20 − 30% = 14. Then 14 − 30% = 9.8. That matches.
Formula
\[S_{i+1} = \begin{cases} S_i + U & \text{if loss} \\ \max(S_i \times (1 - r), U) & \text{if win} \end{cases}\]Where:
- $S_i$ = current stake
- $U$ = unit size (starting stake)
- $r$ = reduction percentage after a win (e.g., 0.30)
Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
unit_size_pct |
number | 1 | Unit size as % of bank |
win_reduction |
number | 30 | % reduction after a win |
min_odds |
number | 1.5 | Minimum lay odds |
max_odds |
number | 10 | Maximum lay odds |
Risk Assessment
- Risk Level: Medium (much lower than Martingale)
- Max Drawdown: Linear growth at unit_size per loss — predictable
- Recommended Bankroll: 100× unit size
- Ruin Risk: Medium-low — linear escalation is manageable
Comparison: Martingale vs Incremental
| Martingale | Incremental | |
|---|---|---|
| After a loss | Double the stake | Add unit size |
| After 5 losses | 32× original | 6× original |
| After 10 losses | 1,024× original | 11× original |
| Risk | Very High | Medium |
When to Use
- You want recovery mechanics but find Martingale too dangerous
- Your lay system has moderate strike rates
- You prefer predictable, linear stake growth
When to Avoid
- Very long losing streaks (linear still adds up)
- Very high lay odds (liability × linear growth can still be substantial)
Betfair Exchange Notes
- Originally designed for lay betting but can be adapted for back
- For lay, consider basing the unit on liability, not stake
Related Plans
- Recovery — More aggressive (full loss recovery)
- D’Alembert — Similar linear progression, different rules
- Lay % Recovery — Percentage-based lay recovery
Sources
- Plan source: MarketFeeder — Incremental Loss Recovery
- Plan mechanics: Mathematical formulas and plan concepts are in the public domain