Lay Maria Liability Staking Plan
Overview
A safer variant of Lay Maria that operates on liability rather than stake. After a loss, the liability escalates — but stakes are calculated to keep liability controlled. More predictable risk than standard Lay Maria.
How It Works
- Set a base liability (your maximum loss per bet initially)
- Lose (selection wins): Increase the target liability for the next bet
- Win (selection loses): Reduce or reset liability toward base
- Stake is derived: Stake = Liability / (Odds − 1)
Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
base_liability |
number | 100 | Starting liability per bet |
escalation |
number | 1.5 | Liability multiplier after a loss |
Risk Assessment
- Risk Level: High (but more controlled than standard Lay Maria)
- Max Drawdown: Predictable — you control liability, not stake
- Recommended Bankroll: 50× base liability
- Ruin Risk: Medium-high — liability grows, but it’s explicit
When to Use
- You want lay recovery but prefer liability-based control
- Your lay odds vary and you want consistent risk sizing
When to Avoid
- Standard Lay Maria caveats apply — still a recovery plan
- Use a stop-loss
Betfair Exchange Notes
- This is the recommended version of Lay Maria for exchange betting
- Liability is explicit and manageable
Related Plans
- Lay Maria — Stake-based variant (riskier)
- Lay % Liability — Non-recovery proportional alternative
Sources
- Plan catalog reference: The Staking Machine — staking plan software with 50+ plans
- Plan mechanics: Mathematical formulas and plan concepts are in the public domain