Stop at a Winner (SAW)
Overview
A recovery staking plan that escalates stakes after losses but resets completely after any winner. The idea: you only need one win to wipe out all accumulated losses and return to profit. Riskier than standard recovery because it aims to recover everything in a single win.
How It Works
- Start with a base stake
- Loss: Calculate next stake to recover all losses + target profit at the upcoming odds
- Win: Reset entirely to base stake
- Continue until a winner occurs, then restart
Parameters
| Parameter |
Type |
Default |
Description |
base_stake |
number |
10 |
Starting stake for each cycle |
target_profit |
number |
0 |
Additional profit target per cycle |
Risk Assessment
- Risk Level: High
- Max Drawdown: Escalates with each consecutive loss
- Recommended Bankroll: 500+ units
- Ruin Risk: High — one long losing streak can be catastrophic
When to Use
- Very high strike rate (>60%)
- Short losing streaks are the norm for your system
- You have a very large bankroll
When to Avoid
- Low strike-rate systems
- Long-odds betting (fewer winners = longer streaks)
- Lay betting (liability compounds dangerously)
- You don’t have a hard stop-loss
Comparison: SAW vs Standard Recovery
| |
SAW |
Standard Recovery |
| After a win |
Full reset |
Full reset |
| Stake growth |
Must recover all losses in one bet |
Can spread recovery |
| Risk |
Higher (fewer bets to recover) |
Slightly lower |
Betfair Exchange Notes
- For lay SAW, the liability after a few losses becomes enormous — not recommended
- Back-only is the safer application
- Recovery — Similar but may spread recovery across bets
- Pro — Recovery with fixed target per cycle
Sources
- Plan catalog reference: The Staking Machine — staking plan software with 50+ plans
- Plan mechanics: Mathematical formulas and plan concepts are in the public domain