Hollandish Staking Plan
Overview
A structured negative progression system that operates in blocks of 3 bets. Within each block, the stake stays constant. If a block of 3 produces a net loss, double the stake for the next block. If a block produces a net profit, reset to base. Named after its supposed Dutch origins.
How It Works
- Divide bets into blocks of 3
- Within each block, use the same stake for all 3 bets
- After 3 bets — if the block is net negative: Double the stake for the next block of 3
- After 3 bets — if the block is net positive (or break-even): Reset to base stake
- A single winning block can recover losses from multiple losing blocks
Example: £10 × 3, all lose (−£30). Next: £20 × 3, win 2, lose 1 (+£20 at evens − £20 = £0 break-even). Next: still £20. Next: £20 × 3, win all 3 (+£60). Net: −£30 + £0 + £60 = +£30. Reset.
Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
base_stake |
number | 10 | Starting stake per bet |
block_size |
number | 3 | Number of bets per block |
multiplier |
number | 2 | Stake multiplier after a losing block |
Risk Assessment
- Risk Level: Medium
- Max Drawdown: Slower escalation than Martingale — doubling only after 3 bets, not after each loss
- Recommended Bankroll: 100+ units (to survive 3–4 losing blocks)
- Ruin Risk: Medium — slower than Martingale but still exponential over many losing blocks
When to Use
- Your strike rate is consistent enough that most 3-bet blocks will be profitable
- You want structured progression with built-in “pauses” between escalations
- You prefer block-based thinking over individual bet chasing
When to Avoid
- Very low strike rates (most blocks will lose, doubling compounds)
- You want simple rules (block tracking adds complexity)
Betfair Exchange Notes
- For lay betting, consider doubling liability rather than stake
- Block-based approach works well for exchange — less frantic than bet-by-bet adjustments
Related Plans
- Martingale — Doubles after every loss (faster, more dangerous)
- Fibonacci — Moderate negative progression
- Stepped Time-Based — Similar block-based thinking, different mechanics
Sources
- Plan mechanics: Classic betting system (public domain)
- Plan catalog reference: The Staking Machine — staking plan software with 50+ plans