Paroli (Reverse Martingale)
Overview
The exact opposite of Martingale: double your stake after wins, not losses. After 3 consecutive wins, reset to base. The philosophy: ride winning streaks with the house’s money, but never chase losses. One of the oldest positive progression systems, dating back to 16th-century Italy.
How It Works
- Start with 1 unit
- Win: Double the stake (up to 2 more times — max 3 doublings)
- Loss: Reset to 1 unit
- After 3 consecutive wins, reset to 1 unit
Example: £10 → Win (+£10) → £20 → Win (+£20) → £40 → Win (+£40) → Reset to £10. Total profit: £70 from an initial £10 risk.
Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
base_unit |
number | 1 | Starting stake |
max_steps |
number | 3 | Maximum consecutive doublings |
Risk Assessment
- Risk Level: Medium
- Max Drawdown: Only 1 unit per losing bet (never chase losses)
- Recommended Bankroll: 20× base unit
- Ruin Risk: Low — you only ever risk your base unit
When to Use
- Your winners tend to cluster in streaks
- You want to compound during hot runs without risking your bankroll
- You prefer the psychological comfort of “never increase after a loss”
When to Avoid
- Isolated winners (rarely get to step 2 or 3)
- Low strike rate (mostly resetting to base)
- You want aggressive bankroll growth (use proportional staking)
Paroli vs Parlay vs 1-3-2-6
| Paroli | Parlay | 1-3-2-6 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| After win | Double stake | Reinvest stake+profit | Follow fixed sequence |
| After loss | Reset to base | Reset to base | Reset to base |
| Max steps | 3 | Configurable | 4 |
| Risk profile | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Betfair Exchange Notes
- Works identically for back and lay
- For lay Paroli, double liability after each winning lay (not recommended — better to double stake)
- Commission reduces effective profit per step
Related Plans
- Martingale — Opposite philosophy (double after losses)
- Parlay — Similar but reinvests stake+profit
- 1-3-2-6 — Fixed-sequence positive progression
- Back Accumulator — Accumulates base+profit after wins
Sources
- Plan mechanics: Classic betting system dating to 16th-century Italy (public domain)
- Plan catalog reference: The Staking Machine — staking plan software with 50+ plans