Diluted Loss Recovery
Overview
A unique recovery approach: instead of chasing a loss in the very next bet (or next few bets), spread the loss evenly across all remaining entries in your betting list. Each remaining bet gets a small additional amount added to its stake, diluting the impact of any single loss across the entire session.
How It Works
- You have a list of selections to bet on (e.g., 30 greyhound races)
- Each selection starts with a base stake
- When a loss occurs: The lost amount is divided by the number of remaining entries
- Each remaining bet gets: base stake + (cumulative diluted loss / entries remaining)
- When a win occurs: The profit reduces the diluted loss pool
- Continue until the list is complete
Example: Start with £10 base stake, 30 races in the list.
- Race 3: Lose £30. 27 races remain. Add £30/27 = £1.11 to each remaining bet.
- Race 10: Lose £40. 20 races remain. Total undiluted loss: ~£70. Add £70/20 = £3.50 each.
- Race 15: Win £25. Undiluted loss drops to ~£45. 15 remain. Add £45/15 = £3.00 each.
Key Insight
Unlike standard recovery where one loss can cascade into escalating stakes over the next few bets, diluted recovery spreads the pain thinly. A £100 loss over 50 remaining bets adds just £2 each — barely noticeable. This makes it far more psychologically manageable and bankroll-friendly than traditional recovery.
Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
base_stake |
number | 10 | Base stake per selection |
list_size |
number | 30 | Total entries in the list |
max_dilution |
number | — | Optional cap on per-bet dilution amount |
Risk Assessment
- Risk Level: Medium (much lower than standard recovery)
- Max Drawdown: Spread across many bets — individual bet stakes grow slowly
- Recommended Bankroll: 30× (base_stake + expected max dilution)
- Ruin Risk: Low-medium — dilution prevents any single bet from ballooning
When to Use
- You bet from a fixed list/roster of selections daily
- You want loss recovery without the danger of escalating stakes
- You prefer “slow and steady” recovery over aggressive loss-chasing
When to Avoid
- Short lists (few entries = dilution is less effective — loss is spread over too few bets)
- You don’t use a predefined list of selections
- Very low strike rates (losses accumulate faster than they can be diluted)
Betfair Exchange Notes
- Originally proposed for lay betting with fixed liability
- Works equally well for back betting
- The concept of spreading liability across remaining entries is particularly valuable for lay betting where individual losses can be large
Related Plans
- Recovery — Traditional aggressive recovery (next bet recovers all)
- Incremental Loss Recovery — Linear-add recovery (different philosophy)
- Stop at a Winner — Reset on any winner
Sources
- Plan source: WellDone Community Forum — “new trigger” — user-contributed concept
- Plan mechanics: Mathematical formulas and plan concepts are in the public domain